Category Archives: Business Disruption

The Critical Twenty Percent

According to the Pareto Principle, for many phenomena, 80 percent of the consequences stem from 20 percent of the causes. Application of the principle to fraud prevention efforts related particularly to automated systems seems increasingly apropos given the deluge of intrusions, data thefts, worms and other attacks which continue unabated, with organizations of all kinds losing productivity, revenue and more customers every month. ACFE members report having asked the IT managers of numerous victimized organizations over the years what measures their organization took prior to an experienced fraud to secure their networks, systems, applications and data, and the answer has typically involved a combination of traditional perimeter protection solutions (such as firewalls, intrusion detection, antivirus and antispyware) together with patch management, business continuance strategies, and access control methods and policies. As much sense as these traditional steps make at first glance, they clearly aren’t proving sufficiently effective in preventing or even containing many of today’s most sophisticated attacks.

The ACFE has determined that not only are some organizations vastly better than the rest of their industries at preventing and responding to cyber-attacks, but also that the difference between these and other organizations’ effectiveness boils down to just a few foundational controls. And the most significant within these foundational controls are not rooted in standard forms of access control, but, surprisingly, in monitoring and managing change. It turns out that for the best performing organizations there are six important control categories – access, change, resolution, configuration, version release and service levels. There are performance measures involving each of the categories defining audit, operations and security performance measures. These include security effectiveness, audit compliance disruption levels, IT user satisfaction and unplanned work. By analyzing relationships between control objectives and corresponding performance indicators, numerous researchers have been able to differentiate which controls are actually most effective for consistently predictable service delivery, as well as for preventing and responding to security incidents and fraud related exploits.

Of the twenty-one most important foundational controls used by the most effective organizations at controlling intrusions, there were two used by virtually all of them. Both of these controls revolve around change management:

• Are systems monitored for unauthorized changes in real time?
• Are there defined consequences for intentional unauthorized changes?

These controls are supplemented by 1) a formal process for IT configuration management; 2) an automated process for configuration management; 3) a process to track change success rates (the percentage of changes that succeed without causing an incident, service outage or impairment); 4) a process that provides relevant personnel with correct and accurate information on all current IT infrastructure configurations. Researchers found that these top six controls help organizations help manage risks and respond to security incidents by giving them the means to look forward, averting the riskiest changes before they happen, and to look backward, identifying definitively the source of outages, fraud associated abnormalities or service issues. Because they have a process that tracks and records all changes to their infrastructure and their associated success rates, the most effective organizations have a more informed understanding of their production environments and can rule out change as a cause very early in the incident response process. This means they can easily find the changes that caused the abnormal incident and remediate them quickly.

The organizations that are most successful in preventing and responding to fraud related security incidents are those that have mastered change management, thereby documenting and knowing the ‘normal’ state of their systems in the greatest possible detail. The organization must cultivate a ‘culture’ of change management and causality throughout, with zero tolerance for any unauthorized changes. As with any organizational culture, the culture of change management should start at the top, with leaders establishing a tone that all change must follow an explicit change management policy and process from the highest to the lowest levels of the organization, with zero tolerance for unauthorized change. These same executives should establish concrete, well-publicized consequences for violating change management procedures, with a clear, written change management policy. One of the components of an effective change management policy is the establishment of a governing body, such as a change advisory board that reviews and evaluates all changes for risk before approving them. This board reinforces the written policy, requiring mandatory testing tor each and every change, and an explicit rollback plan for each in the case of an unexpected result.

ACFE studies stress that post incident reviews are also crucial, so that the organization protects itself from repeating past mistakes. During these reviews, change owners should document their findings and work to integrate lessons learned into future anti-fraud operational practices.
Perhaps most important for responding to changes is having clear visibility into all change activities, not just those that are authorized. Automated controls that can maintain a change history reduce the risk of human error in managing and controlling the overall process.

So organizations that focus solely on access and reactive resolution controls at the expense of real time change management process controls are almost guaranteed to experience in today’s environment more security incidents, more damage from security incidents, and dramatically longer and less-effective resolution times. On the other hand, organizations that foster a culture of disciplined change management and causality, with full support from senior management, and have zero tolerance for unauthorized change and abnormalities, will have a superior security posture with fewer incidents, dramatically less damage to the business from security breaches and much faster incident identification and resolution of incidents when they happen.

In conducting a cyber-fraud post-mortem, CFE’s and other assurance professionals should not fail to focus on strengthening controls related to reducing 1) the amount of overall time the IT department devotes to unplanned work; 2) a high volume of emergency system changes; 3) and the number and nature of a high volume of failed system changes. All these are red-flags for cyber fraud risk and indicative of a low level of real time system knowledge on the part of the client organization.

Managing Disruption

Technology risks are evolving and changing so rapidly, it’s more difficult for management to assess new fraud threats and to adjust its strategies to manage and mitigate them. Applications that use disruptive technologies, such as artificial intelligence, advanced robotics, 3D printing, blockchain, and the Internet of Things, are being designed quickly and often generate new high-growth markets. CFEs and other anti-fraud professionals are struggling to stay abreast of the most recent developments and to identify anti-fraud policies, procedures and controls that add value.  Additionally, the exponential growth of computing power has enabled our client organizations to capitalize on the use of mobile devices and to leverage the ubiquity of the internet to reach their markets almost instantly.

While this is an exciting and challenging opportunity for marketers and business managers, it has injected new risk considerations for CFEs. Digitalization of data has created opportunities for knowledgeable investigators to improve their use of data analytics, use algorithms to facilitate cognitive intelligence, and to even create bot applications that perform automated fraud assessment tasks in real time. The essence of the risks and controls involved has not changed as much as the underlying technology. The new processes still need to adhere to organizational policies and procedures, change management practices are still a vital component in transitioning to new tools and processes, and system and access controls must continue to be enforced. However, some controls that were important in the past now take on a new level of criticality. Automated algorithms result in less transparency of the underlying process. When data is used and shared through these processes, accuracy and completeness become a necessity. An organization needs very specific controls to ensure a bot does not proliferate erroneous data. Anti-fraud focused information security and access control processes must treat the bot as if it were a person and only allow it access to appropriate data. Checks and balances must be integrated into the process to ensure the results are accurate, service level agreements are met, and contracts remain faithfully performed.

Advanced materials, 3D printing, and autonomous vehicles are other advances that are transforming the fraud prevention landscape. New businesses created by these technologies need to follow established governance processes and design fraud and abuse risk management and related internal controls into their business processes. As entirely new markets and products are developed, it’s important that risk managers with fraud investigation experience are involved proactively from the first. This blog has devoted several recent posts to blockchain technology.  Blockchain is a distributed ledger that maintains a shared list of records. Each of these records contains time-stamped data that is encoded and linked to every other previous transaction in that chain of transactions. The decentralized and distributed storage of these records provides visibility to everyone in the network and ensures that no single entity can change any of the historical records. While blockchain is already being used in numerous applications, most notably digital currencies, many other industries are exploring the technology.  Banks are testing cross-border financial transactions, and there is much speculation about the potential to use blockchain to eliminate the middle man in real estate deals, routine contract management, stock purchases, and other similar transactions. If blockchain is effective at eliminating intermediaries, the new business model will expose all the transacting parties to new fraud risks, which were previously being addressed by the middle man.

There are several ways CFEs can proactively help manage the effect of the fraud related aspects of disruptive technologies on their client organizations. By focusing on anti-fraud assurance, providing fraud scenario insight to management, and by demonstrating proficiency and expertise in innovative technologies, fraud examiners will be able to contribute significantly to the overall fraud prevention programs of our client organizations.

For many years organizations have been encouraged by economists to focus on what they do best. That is wise advice for the fraud examination profession, as well. By continuing to focus on governance, fraud risk, and preventative controls, CFEs can help ensure fraud prevention policies and processes are designed and operating effectively. Regardless of the nature or tempo of the changes, investigators will then be able to more effectively fulfill their mission. Moreover, proactively helping their organizations anticipate emerging fraud risks and technological changes can position fraud examiners as authorities and better prepare client organizations to better respond to disruptive events.

By aligning with the expectations of the profession’s key client stakeholders and working closely with those subject-matter experts who are implementing disruptive technologies from within and without, CFEs can remain focused on the most relevant and significant fraud prevention related issues.  For example, cybersecurity and data privacy are topics that every organization is managing. Identifying trends that will affect the organization, and collaborating with and providing insight to their stakeholders, can enable the CFE community to significantly affect the business agenda.  More than ever, fraud examiners must constantly pursue training to learn about recent technologies and the complex and emerging new risks being introduced into their organizations.  Additionally, chief investigators need to focus on developing an adaptive, flexible, innovative staffing model. This new model must tap into a highly specialized talent pool that has the technological competence to rapidly understand and leverage new tools, techniques, and processes.  Perhaps the most important thing CFEs can do to prepare for disruptive technological innovations is to embrace and leverage new technologies in their own work. CFE investigators need to be at the forefront of adopting artificial intelligence, cognitive computing, and smart robots.

All assurance professionals need to completely understand how technologies like blockchain work and how they can be used and analyzed in fraud investigations.  They must take advantage of machine learning and data analytics in their examination processes. Moreover, continuous fraud auditing should be the standard default for new review routines and real-time identification of fraud signatures and red flags should be a requirement as organizations implement new business processes.

In summary, the threat of disruptive technologies has arrived and will affect every organization regardless of its size or objectives. When Gordon Moore observed in 1965 that the number of transistors on an integrated circuit had doubled every year since transistors were invented, few thought that exponential growth would continue for more than 50 years. As computing power increases, technology becomes more mobile, data becomes more accessible and usable, and fraudsters capitalize on the opportunities that arise. Fraud risk managers will have to assess emerging threats consistently and continuously. CFEs will need to respond to emerging threats with new and better ways to perform our investigations and engage to redesign our own processes or face disruption ourselves.